The report reviews the current status of climate change projections for Pakistan by assessing national and provincial documents, international sources, and research literature, focusing on global and regional projections, emissions scenarios, and treatment of uncertainty. It finds that many reviewed studies provide limited transparency on the selection of climate models, scenarios, parameters, and downscaling methods, and often lack interpretation or decision-making guidance. The report also notes that projections used in Pakistan span different generations of Global Climate Models (CMIP3/CMIP5 and some CMIP6 with SSPs), with outputs frequently presented as ensemble means rather than clearly defined scenario narratives. Finally, it summarises that both empirical (statistical) and numerical (e.g., Regional Climate Model) downscaling approaches have been applied in Pakistan, but the justification for method and model choices is often weak and parameters assessed are commonly limited to temperature and rainfall.

